I. Analysis of Major International News
1. ăEU Commission Approves âŹ623 Million German State Aid to Support Construction of Two Chip Factories in Germanyă
The European Commission announced on December 11 that it has approved the German government's provision of âŹ623 million (approximately $729 million USD) in aid to GlobalFoundries and X-FAB to support the construction of two new semiconductor manufacturing plants in Germany. The aid consists of two grants valued at âŹ495 million and âŹ128 million, respectively. The larger grant will be provided to GlobalFoundries, a semiconductor foundry specializing in manufacturing semiconductor devices for other companies. The second grant will be provided to X-FAB support the construction of a new open foundry at its existing site in Erfurt, Germany.
The European Commission stated in a statement that these measures will have a wider positive impact on the European semiconductor ecosystem and promote the development of European economic activities.
It is truly outrageous for the EU to copy other countries' industrial support and state subsidy policies, interfering with fair market competition. Bad review!
2. ăEU Considers Postponing Fuel Car Ban by Five Years with Conditionsă
Multiple authoritative media reported on December 11 that following pressure from some major EU automobile producing countries, the EU is considering conditionally postponing the implementation of the fuel car ban by five years. The European Commission plans to announce policy adjustment plans for the automotive industry to move away from fossil fuels next week.
The European Commission's strategy is to allow plug-in hybrid vehicles and range-extended vehicles to extend the use of internal combustion engines by five years. But the premise is that these vehicles must use advanced biofuels and so-called e-fuels, and use green steel in the manufacturing process.
In 2023, the EU approved a regulation deciding to ban the sale of new fuel cars and small vans that cause carbon emissions from 2035, and the ban includes hybrid vehicles. Now it seems that this emission reduction plan was indeed too radical.
II. Latest Updates and Comments on the Russia-Ukraine War
1. ăEU to Bypass Hungary Veto to Advance Ukraine Accession Processă
Danish Minister for European Affairs Marie Bjerre, representing the EU rotating presidency, and EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos announced at an informal meeting of the EU General Affairs Council held in Lviv, Ukraine on December 11 that a new technical negotiation mode will be launched, and these negotiations will not be restricted by Hungary's veto power.
Marie Bjerre stated that she regrets the Orban government's failure to lift the blockade, forcing other European countries to find ways to bypass Hungary's one-vote veto. She said: "Many of us are disappointed that we failed to let Ukraine officially launch the first negotiation cluster, but I am proud that we have adopted a front-loaded alternative technical approach. We confirmed this new approach today, and the President of Cyprus, the next rotating presidency, will be able to continue to use this approach... This means that the accession process with Ukraine will not stagnate due to Hungary's obstruction."
Bjerre clarified that this route essentially means bypassing Hungary's veto, but only for a period of time. Closing the negotiation clusters still requires the consent of all EU member states, which cannot be avoided. She announced that Ukraine will immediately gain access to open negotiations with the EU in three major areas: Category 1, "Fundamentals" â including democratic procedures, rule of law, etc.; Category 2, "Internal Market" â this is the largest category; Category 6, "External Relations" â this is the simplest area for Ukraine to seek rapid success.
Marta Kos confirmed that Ukraine and the EU have now entered a technical process that is not easily affected by Hungary's veto. She said: "Today, member states have clearly given direction... there is a reform list, and no one can veto Ukraine from implementing these reforms."
Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Taras Kachka said that lifting the obstacles to technical negotiations with the EU will allow the process to be completed faster than the European Commission requires. He stated that the reason for accelerating the process is that the negotiations involve not only technical issues but also security issues. Considering that Ukraine's accession to the EU is one of the cornerstones of future peace and security guarantee negotiations, this process could be shortened to be completed within 24 months.
I have always believed that the EU has the wisdom and mechanisms to resolve major decisions where Hungary obstructs issues related to Ukraine. However, many readers insist that the EU should just expel Hungary. Regrettably, Westerners cannot come up with such a "unique move". Lacking a sense of "enemy vs friend", they are accustomed to resolving internal political disputes through compromise.
(EU General Affairs Council held in Lviv)
2. ăEU Reported to Plan Extending Russian Asset Freeze Duration to Clear Way for Ukraine Loană
Media citing insider sources reported on December 11 that the EU is pushing to reach an agreement as early as Friday to use emergency powers to extend the freeze period on Russian assets, which is a key step in using these funds to aid Ukraine. This issue has become the main obstacle for the EU attempting to use frozen Russian central bank assets to provide a âŹ90 billion loan to Ukraine.
Currently, all 27 EU member states must unanimously agree to renew the freeze on Russian assets every six months, and Hungary or other countries may exercise their veto power, giving Moscow a sudden claim to these funds. People familiar with the matter said that the European Commission's proposal will extend the current six-month freeze cycle and stipulate that each renewal only requires the support of a specific majority of member states. The European Commission also intends to handle the extension of the freeze period separately from using these funds to provide loans to Ukraine, because no consensus has yet been reached on the latter.
I firmly believe that the EU high-level officials have the wisdom to gather internal consensus and resolve the issue of huge aid funds for Ukraine, and the vast majority of European countries have the determination and ability to continue supporting Ukraine.
(EU continues to push for using frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine)
3. ăUkraine Received 50.8 Billion USD External Financial Aid in 2025ă
The National Bank of Ukraine stated on December 11: Since the beginning of this year, Ukraine has received $45.8 billion in foreign aid, and is expected to receive another $5 billion in December. I believe this refers only to economic aid, excluding military aid and humanitarian aid. Last month, the bank disclosed that foreign exchange reserves hit a record high of $49.5 billion due to large-scale capital inflows from international partners, and clarified that such capital inflows are used for economic purposes such as maintaining foreign exchange market stability and repaying foreign currency debts.
According to the latest data from the independent Ukrainian agency "Aid Tracker", as of December 10, the total amount of military aid promised to Ukraine by partner countries for the 2025 fiscal year is âŹ32.5 billion, while the average amount for 2022â2024 was âŹ41.6 billion. Compared with the average level of the previous three years, the scale of military aid Ukraine obtained this year has significantly decreased. An important reason is that a large number of expensive equipment such as tanks, armored vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, rocket launch systems, aircraft, and air defense systems were provided in previous years. This year is mainly for replenishing air defense systems and weapons and ammunition, plus the US stopped military aid to Ukraine, so the total amount of military aid has dropped significantly.
The more than $50 billion in financial aid obtained by Ukraine is far exceeding the average level of the past three years. These funds are mainly used for defense expenditures, including paying military salaries, subsidies, rewards, purchasing domestic weapons and equipment, restoring critical infrastructure, and for key livelihood projects.
Although the amount of military aid obtained by the Ukrainian army this year has decreased significantly, based on the reasons I mentioned earlier, plus the important role drones are playing on the battlefieldâabout 60% of Russian casualties and equipment losses are caused by drones, and the vast majority of drones are produced by Ukraine itselfâthe Ukrainian army currently has sufficient ammunition.
(Ukraine continues to receive large amounts of external aid)
4. ăUkraine Deputy Speaker: Clear Security Framework is Prerequisite for Wartime Electionsă
First Deputy Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) of Ukraine Oleksandr Korniyenko stated on December 11 that currently, Ukraine has no legislative proposals regarding holding elections during wartime, nor are there any relevant drafts. He stated that formulating such laws requires extensive consultation among the parliament, government, and civil society organizations. He emphasized that any decision must be made with the participation of all parties.
Korniyenko pointed out that the reason Ukraine has not held elections is not due to the political will of the ruling authorities, but due to being in a state of war and the continuous military threat from Russia. He also emphasized that as an EU candidate country, Ukraine must fulfill the Copenhagen criteria (EU new member accession criteria), but the prerequisite for holding elections is to establish a clear security guarantee framework, which requires support from international partners, especially the United States and EU countries.
As analyzed in my article yesterday, Ukraine will definitely use this opportunity of Trump pressuring Ukraine to hold wartime elections to demand security guarantees from the US, forcing Russia to at least temporarily cease fire for 3-6 months. If Trump does not have this capability, he cannot just talk nonsense all day. Kicking the ball back to Trump's feet is the best strategy.
(Ukraine First Deputy Speaker Korniyenko)
5. ăUkraine Attacks Another Russian "Shadow Fleet" Large Oil Tankeră
On December 10, 2025, the Black Sea once again became the focus of asymmetric naval warfare. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Navy jointly operated and used "Sea Baby" suicide drones to successfully attack the Suezmax tanker "Dashan" which was sailing towards Novorossiysk. This is the third time in a short period of time that the Ukrainian army successfully attacked a Russian "shadow fleet" tanker, following the severe damage to the "Kairos" and "Virat".
"Sea Baby" usually carries about 1000 kg of high explosives, with power equivalent to a large torpedo. Tankers hit are difficult to repair in a short time. The attacked "Dashan" is a typical "shadow fleet" giant ship, which has been included in the sanctions list by the EU and the UK. Looking at its load, the ship's deadweight tonnage is as high as 164,600 tons, and a single voyage can carry more than 1 million barrels of crude oil. Although the ship flew the Comoros flag of convenience at the time of the attack and turned off the AIS transponder during the voyage to hide its tracks, the actual controller behind it points to India. Intelligence shows that this large oil tanker is managed by Caishan Shipping Company located in India, and the actual owner is unknown.
Ukraine's strikes on large oil tankers heading to Russian ports to load oil and natural gas will not cause environmental pollution, but can severely damage Russia's energy exports. Since December 2024, at least 7 tankers that had docked at Russian ports have encountered unexplained explosions in the Mediterranean and Black seas, most of which are suspected to be attacks by Ukraine using magnetic mines or long-range unmanned surface vehicles.
Some people worried that Ukraine's actions would lead to an escalation of the war. I sneered at that timeâexcept for not using nuclear weapons, what other means has Russia not used? And even if given a hundred times the courage, the Kremlin would not dare to easily use nuclear weaponsâunless the Russian army is completely defeated, it might make a desperate, fish-die-net-break crazy move.
("Dashan" tanker attack situation)
6. ăUkrainian Forces Attack Caspian Sea Filanovsky Oil Drilling Platformă
Long-range drones of the SBU Special Operations Center attacked Russian infrastructure related to oil production in the Caspian Seaâthe Filanovsky oil drilling platformâfor the first time on December 11. The Ukrainian side reported, "At least four hits were made on the offshore platform. The attack caused the suspension of oil and gas production in more than 20 wells."
The Filanovsky field is one of the largest exploration fields in Russia and the Russian Exclusive Economic Zone of the Caspian Sea, with reserves of up to 129 million tons of oil and 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas. The extracted products are exported through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. The SBU stated, "We will continue to carry out long-range strikes on the Russian oil and gas industry to weaken Russia's war potential. The Caspian Sea explosion once again reminds Russia that all enterprises participating in the war are legitimate targets, no matter where they are."
Some people have always said, why doesn't the Ukrainian army bomb Russian oil fields? Now the Ukrainian army has finally started on the oil fields. However, I must say, compared to bombing empty tankers, oil depots, and power facilities, strikes on oil fields are really difficult to cause large-area damage and are relatively easy to repair. Even if offshore drilling platforms are more fragile than those on land, it is difficult to cause major, irreversible damage by drone attacks.
(Filanovsky oil drilling platform)
7. ăLatest War Situation Summary, Sharing a Video of Russian Casualtiesă
In the past week, along the more than 1200 km contact line between Russia and Ukraine, the fiercest fighting was in the Pokrovsk direction of Donetsk Oblast and the Huliaipole direction of Zaporizhzhia. In addition, in the Slovyansk direction, the Russian army claimed to have occupied the town of Siversk, which the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces explicitly denied on December 11; the latest war report released by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) this morning Beijing time also considered it a lie.
In the fiercest direction of Pokrovsk, the seesaw battle between the two sides continues. Soldiers of the 425th Separate Assault Battalion "Skala" of the Ukrainian Army raised the Ukrainian flag in the center of Pokrovsk, Donetsk region on December 11. This building and the surrounding area were previously controlled by the Russian army, and the Ukrainian army successfully recaptured this area. The video released by the Ukrainian army stated, "The world must see that although the Kremlin lies about 'occupying' this city, the Ukrainian army is still fighting in the city and will continue to clear the invading Russian army, and will never cede territory to the occupiers."
Last night I saw an extremely shocking video. Although the picture quality was poor, it showed a shocking scene of Russian corpses all over the field. This "death trench" of the Russian army, which went viral on the Internet, is located near Pokrovsk and was originally an anti-tank trench. The video shows that the road the Russian army walked on and the tank trench are full of corpses and stumps, like a hell on earth. I believe that anyone who watches this video, as long as they have a shred of humanity left, will never advocate for war again; as long as they have a little independent thinking ability, they will never believe that the Russian army is invincible.
Because this video was too shocking, I asked a friend to help carefully verify the authenticity of this video. I can determine that this video was not made by AI, but is a real mobile phone shot, which first appeared on the international social media platform "Instagram" and spread widely in the past 24 hours. I suspect this is related to the sudden surge in the number of Russian troops wiped out in yesterday's Ukrainian war report.
With the help of friends, domestic and foreign AI models were used for analysis, confirming that it was shot by a mobile phone. The video was mixed with a large amount of profanity and exclamations (such as "Blya", "Suka", etc.), and the shock and disgust revealed in the tone were very real, highly synchronized with the content of the picture. The watermark "ParaPax" in the video is a well-known account that frequently posts war-related recordings. No record of fraud has been found before. Such channels usually aggregate real combat or post-war footage from the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
(Video recording Russian corpses all over the field)
In the Huliaipole area, where the intensity of the fighting is second only to Pokrovsk, on December 10, the Ukrainian army discovered a group of Russian soldiers in plain clothes attempting to infiltrate the rear of the Ukrainian defenders and eliminated them after confirming their identities.
The Zaporizhzhia Border Guard Detachment reported on December 11, "Yesterday, in the Huliaipole area, Russian servicemen again resorted to prohibited combat methods. Two men in civilian clothes approached the Ukrainian border guard positions, observed our army for a period of time, and then used bad weather to try to bypass the positions and infiltrate from the rear. During the movement, their radio station was activated, exposing their identity as Russian troops, and they were killed by the Ukrainian army."
Voloshyn, spokesman for the Ukrainian Southern Command, told the media on December 11 that Huliaipole is still controlled by the Defense Forces, and the Russian army was wiped out on the outskirts of the city. He said, "The enemy is trying to enter Huliaipole. First, it tries to surround Huliaipole from the east and north. In addition, it also tries to cut off the logistics routes to Huliaipole, especially the route from the north. This route from Pokrovsk in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Huliaipole is one of the main logistics routes."
He emphasized that the Ukrainian army is very clear about the enemy's intentions, so they are wiping out the enemy troops as they approach the village of Varvarivka. He stated that although the enemy used small infantry groups and infiltration tactics, they could not enter the outskirts of the city. He affirmed, "There are no enemies in Huliaipole now. The Russian army was destroyed at the entrance to the town." He called for not spreading false information about the war situation on the front line.
According to Voloshyn, in the past day, the Defense Forces wiped out 355 Russian troops and destroyed nearly 70 weapons and military equipment in the south. He said: "The fighting has been fierce recently, and we record 300-350 enemy casualties every day."
8. ăRussian Latest Combat Losses Statistics Released by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forcesă
In the past day, Russian casualties were 1,400, and other combat losses are shown in the figure below (yellow numbers are statistics for the past 24 hours, white numbers are cumulative totals). The number of dead enemies is as amazing as yesterday. In today's Russian combat loss statistics, a Russian fighter jet was also shot down; the latest news is that the Ukrainian army shot down a Su-34 fighter-bomber in the Donetsk direction, and the life and death of the two pilots are unknown.
(Russian latest combat losses published by the Ukrainian General Staff)
Let us continue to pray earnestly: May God grant peace and stop the war; let the wicked be punished and the kind be protected.
III. Reply to Reader Inquiries and Rumor Rebuttals
1. Zaluzhny is now a senior official of the Zelensky government and ambassador to the UK. Is it appropriate for him to come out and run for president to compete with Zelensky?
Answer: I believe that before the Ukrainian parliament amends the law to approve general elections during wartime and states of emergency, and the election commission issues an election announcement, he will not announce his candidacy. Once an election announcement is issued, if he intends to run, he will definitely resign, so that there will be no conflict of professional ethics, and he can also devote himself to the election campaign.
2. You said before that Zelensky agreeing to elections was a retreat to advance, bargaining with the United States, and now you say that wartime elections will be held. Is it changing too fast?
Answer: Following my articles yesterday and the day before, look at where I said that wartime elections will definitely be held? On the contrary, I have repeatedly emphasized that this matter requires taking one step at a time, and it is too early to draw conclusions.
3. The Mexican Parliament passed a bill to impose tariffs of 5-50% on hundreds of commodities starting next year, and the media claimed that the taxable commodities are mainly imported from China. Is this settled? do we have any countermeasures? Which industries are greatly affected?
Answer: This is a very professional question, and I must answer it very carefully because it is closely related to China.
Mexico's bill to impose tariffs on commodities containing a large amount of Chinese imports has been finalized and will take effect on January 1, 2026, tentatively implemented until December 31 of that year, after which it will be decided whether to extend or modify it depending on the situation. On December 10 local time, the Mexican Chamber of Deputies passed the bill with an overwhelming majority, and the Senate subsequently reviewed and passed it with 76 votes in favor, 5 against, and 35 abstentions.
The Mexican government ignored China's severe warnings and went its own way. China has made full preparations for countermeasures. For example, as early as September 25, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce launched a trade and investment barrier investigation against Mexico, covering core categories affected by tariffs such as automobiles, steel, textiles, and electronic products. This laid a solid legal foundation for subsequent countermeasures.
According to public data from the General Administration of Customs of China, China's exports to Mexico in 2024 were $90.232 billion, and imports from Mexico were $19.195 billion; according to official data from the Mexican Ministry of Economy and the National Institute of Statistics and Geography, Mexico's exports to China in 2024 were $8.851 billion, and imports were $129.458 billion.
According to the latest official data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on December 8, China's exports to Mexico regarding January-November 2025 were 700 billion yuan (about $98.5 billion), and imports were 100 billion yuan (about $14 billion); the Central Bank of Mexico announced that Mexico's exports to China from January to October 2025 were $8.012 billion, and Mexico's imports from China were $109.394 billion.
(Data comparison and commentary omitted for brevity in translation, preserving main points).
The three major industries affected by tariffs are:
- Automobiles and parts: 235 tariff items related products are subject to 20%-50% tariffs, and some core parts are subject to a maximum of 50% heavy tax;
- Textiles and clothing: The industry is affected in a very wide range, involving 1014 tariff items related products, and the tax rate has been raised to 10%-35%;
- Steel and its products: 249 tariff items related products face tariffs of 15%-50%.