I. Interpretation of Major International News
1. [20 US States Sue Trump Administration Over H-1B Visa Fee Hike]
On the 12th, 20 states, including California, sued the federal government led by President Trump, hoping to stop the latter from significantly increasing the H-1B visa fe to $100,000. States such as New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, and New Jersey filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration in a federal court in Boston, Massachusetts.
California Attorney General Rob Bonta stated that, according to the law, visa fees are only intended to cover relevant processing costs, and the $100,000 H-1B visa fee far exceeds the cost. Additionally, Trump as President does not have the authority to levy this fee; that power belongs to Congress.
Legally speaking, Trump is likely to lose this lawsuit. Most presidential executive orders issued during Trump's first term and so far in his second term have been overturned by courts. This is also why Trump has repeatedly publicly expressed his extreme envy of Russian and North Korean leaders.
2. [Trump Cancels Sanctions on Brazilian Judge]
The US Treasury Department stated on December 12 that it has lifted sanctions on a Brazilian Supreme Court judge. The judge had been sanctioned for overseeing criminal cases against allies of US President Trump. Before this reversal, the US had already begun to lift high tariffs on Brazilian goods.
In July this year, the US imposed sanctions on Brazilian judge Alexandre de Moraes under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act for his role in the trial that led to the conviction and imprisonment of former Brazilian President Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro was convicted for attempting to stage a coup after failing to win re-election in 2022. Brazilian President Lula subsequently welcomed the US move, stating that he had repeatedly requested the lifting of these sanctions during a phone call with Trump last week.
Although I do not like Brazilian President Lula, I have to say that Trump's sanctions against the Brazilian judge were unreasonable. Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro, who shares similar political views with Trump, refused to acknowledge election results like Trump after losing his re-election bid in 2022, inciting supporters to storm government institutions. The evidence was conclusive, and he was convicted by the court. Trump's anger at the Brazilian judge was less about protecting his Brazilian political ally and more about fearing that he himself might be held legally accountable for similar crimes.
II. Latest Dynamics and Comments on the Russia-Ukraine War
1. [UK and Belgian PMs Meet; Starmer Hopes to Persuade Counterpart to Agree to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Aid Ukraine]
On the 12th local time, British Prime Minister Starmer met with Belgian Prime Minister De Croo at Downing Street. Both sides agreed to establish an increasingly close partnership on a range of shared priorities such as migration, security, and economic growth. In addition, both sides discussed the latest progress in peace negotiations on the Ukraine issue, agreeing that now is a critical moment determining Ukraine's future. Both sides explored work carried out jointly with other European countries, including schemes to use frozen Russian assets to meet Ukraine's financial needs. The two leaders agreed to continue close cooperation to drive progress on this issue.
In fact, the main event of the British government arranging this meeting was Starmer's hope to persuade his counterpart to agree to use frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine. Most of Russia's frozen assets are held in Euroclear in Belgium. Belgium has disagreed with using the frozen Russian assets, citing a lack of legal basis and the inability of Belgium to face huge risks alone.
On December 13, British Prime Minister Starmer and European Commission President von der Leyen spoke by phone, discussing the US-led peace plan to end Russia's war against Ukraine and the latest situation on advancing the use of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine. Although the UK is not an EU member, it has previously announced that it will provide "compensation loans" to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets in the UK as collateral, taking a step ahead in the entire Western camp. At the same time, Starmer hopes to use Britain's influence to persuade Belgium to cooperate with the EU in implementing the "compensation loan" initiative for Ukraine proposed by von der Leyen.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24, 2022, consecutive British Prime Ministers have taken the lead in crossing Russia's red lines and breaking taboos on the issue of aiding Ukraine, playing an extremely important leading and demonstrative role in the Western camp, highlighting the foresight of this old empire in major international affairs.
2. [US Says It Is Pushing for Normalization of Relations with Belarus]
Local time December 12-13, Belarusian President Lukashenko met with US Special Envoy for Belarus John Koe in Minsk. US Special Envoy for Belarus John Koe stated on the 13th that the US is taking measures to restore normal bilateral relations with Belarus, which includes lifting sanctions and releasing detained persons. Koe also stated that he discussed the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Venezuela-related matters with Belarusian President Lukashenko.
The Belarusian Presidential Office announced on December 13: As part of an agreement reached with the United States, Lukashenko has pardoned 123 foreign citizens imprisoned for alleged espionage, terrorism, and extremist activities. According to the agreement with the US, 9 of the released were eventually sent to Lithuania, and 114 were taken to Ukraine. However, Western governments and media call the released persons "civilian political prisoners." Among them were the famous Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, former presidential candidate Viktar Babaryka, his ally Maria Kalesnikava, and Maryna Zolatava, editor-in-chief of the TUT.by portal.
What is certain is that the vast majority of them are Belarusian citizens, not foreign citizens—I don't understand why the Belarusian government lied on this issue, or if the media reporting the matter deliberately concealed it. It is evident that truth cannot be heard from Belarusian government gazettes and media. As a transaction, the US lifted the ban on Belarusian potash exports. Potash is mainly used as fertilizer and is Belarus's main export product.
The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War stated on the same day: Belarus has handed over 114 civilians to Ukraine, including 5 Ukrainian citizens. The Ukrainian side introduced the identities of prominent figures among the 109 Belarusian citizens received, all of whom are Belarusian opposition figures who support Ukraine and oppose pro-Russian Belarus. The Ukrainian Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War stated: "After receiving necessary medical treatment, the released Belarusian citizens will be sent to Poland and Lithuania if they wish. Or anywhere else they want to go."
The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) provided the US with a list of this group of released personnel, facilitating their release. HUR Chief Lieutenant General Budanov personally went to welcome this group of released personnel upon their arrival in Ukraine and spoke with one of the most prominent released figures, former Belarusian presidential candidate Viktar Babaryka and his ally Maria Kalesnikava. In addition, nine political prisoners released from Belarus were taken to Lithuania, including Nobel Prize winner Ales Bialiatski and a Polish citizen. Bialiatski, with a head of white hair, looked in good spirits. He kept a gentle smile on his face and told the media: "The authorities suggested I ask for a pardon, but I did not do so." He expressed gratitude for the US government's help.
Belarus has been under severe sanctions from the Western camp for assisting Russia in invading Ukraine. If Trump fully restores relations with Belarus, apart from undermining the internal unity of the Western camp and creating greater rifts and distrust between the US and Europe, I see no benefit for the United States. I believe that the US is currently only partially lifting sanctions on Belarus in exchange for some political interests, including securing the release of some political prisoners by Belarus, to accumulate Trump's image as a peacemaker. Regardless of Trump's intention in restoring relations with Belarus, facilitating the release of a large number of political prisoners detained by Belarus is always a gratifying thing. The person making a heart shape with her hands in the picture below is the famous Belarusian opposition political leader Maria Kalesnikava.
3. [German Chancellor Candidate Merz Convenes Meeting of Major European Leaders on Monday to Discuss Ukraine Issue]
German Chancellor candidate Merz will organize a Ukraine peace conference in Berlin on Monday. It is expected that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, British Prime Minister Starmer, French President Macron, the two EU Presidents, the NATO Secretary General, and leaders of some key European countries will attend the meeting.
Finnish President Stubb, who has close personal ties with Trump, announced at a press conference in The Hague on Friday that due to the "critical situation in Ukraine," he has canceled plans to visit the US on Monday and Tuesday and will instead go to Germany to participate in discussions on the Ukraine issue. Stubb was scheduled to attend the unveiling of Finland's new F-35A multi-role fighter fleet in Fort Worth, Texas, and the opening of the Finnish consulate in Houston.
One important topic of Monday's meeting is to discuss the Ukraine peace plan with US Presidential Envoy Vitkov. I don't think any breakthrough will be achieved. Ukraine and Europe have to pretend to be polite and dance with wolves, with the aim of doing their utmost to avoid falling out with the United States. After sending Vitkov away, a more important topic may be to unify positions for the vote in the European Council on December 18 to pass the "compensation loan" for Ukraine using frozen Russian assets, determining how to pressure Hungary, Slovakia, and Belgium, and specific contingency plans in case of obstruction by individual member states.
It is worth noting that far-right Italian Prime Minister Meloni and the incoming far-right Czech government are secretly becoming Trump's accomplices recently, attempting to gang up with Hungary and Slovakia to sacrifice Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, forcing Ukraine to agree to land-for-peace conditions agreed upon by the US and Russia. The US is wooing the four countries governed by right-wing populist parties—Italy, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia—which are becoming the biggest "enemies" within NATO and the EU. It also needs to be explained that the Czech Republic, like Germany, has a parliamentary system where the president is only a figurehead, so the pro-Ukraine Czech president cannot dictate the government's foreign policy. The more critical the moment, the more the wisdom of the leaders of several major European countries is tested. As long as the leaders of Germany, France, the UK, and the EU are tough enough, they will surely be able to unite the vast majority of European countries and allies like Japan and Canada to calmly deal with the adverse current set off by Trump's abandonment of Ukraine and European allies.
On December 13, German Chancellor candidate Merz declared at the CSU party conference in Bavaria that the era of "Pax Americana" has ended, and issued the sternest and most blunt criticism of the US government to date. He said that for Europeans and Germans, Pax Americana has basically ended; it is no longer what it was in memory, and nostalgia is useless. He bluntly stated that the US now uses unscrupulous means for its own interests and is very, very ruthless; although we are not in a state of war, we no longer live in peace.
Thus, the German leader's understanding of the current situation is extremely sober—Americans are pursuing their own selfish interests and openly betraying allies; Europeans can now only rely on themselves.
4. [Russian Army Launches Large-Scale Airstrike on Southern Ukrainian Port City of Odesa]
From the night of December 12 to the early morning of the 13th, Russia again used drones and air-based, sea-based, and ground-launched missiles to attack multiple cities in Ukraine, with the main target being the Odesa region. Ukrainian radar troops detected and tracked 495 incoming targets, including 30 missiles of various types and 465 drones of various types. Among the 30 missiles were 4 Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal" hypersonic air-launched ballistic missiles, 5 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 5 Iskander-K cruise missiles, and 16 sea-launched "Kalibr" cruise missiles.
As of 12:00 noon on December 13, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down/jammed 430 incoming targets: including 417 drones; 4 Iskander-K missiles, and 9 "Kalibr" missiles. 8 missiles and 33 drones were recorded hitting 18 locations, and 3 places were hit by falling debris. In addition, 6 missiles failed to hit their targets, and the crash locations are still being verified.
The attack on the Odesa region caused 4 injuries. Odesa's energy infrastructure was damaged. Water and heating supplies were temporarily interrupted. After air raid sirens sounded in multiple cities across the country, power outages and rationing measures were implemented. In the Mykolaiv region adjacent to Odesa, three civilians were injured, including a 16-year-old girl; damage to energy facilities led to power, water, and heating outages in two residential areas. Power outages were most severe in the three southern Ukrainian regions of Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson. The Ukrainian power department reported that due to damage to multiple key power facilities, power outages in some residential areas of Odesa and Kherson could last up to a week.
5. [Ukrainian Army Says Russian Army Is Losing Momentum North of Pokrovsk]
The Ukrainian Air Assault Forces 7th Corps issued a statement on December 13 stating that they firmly control the northern part of Pokrovsk city, where the Russian army has "lost momentum." The Ukrainian army stated: "For the fourth time in the past six weeks, the Russian side announced the occupation of the entire Pokrovsk, trying to treat beautiful fantasies as reality. Their only basis is photos and videos taken by 'flag-planting influencers' who infiltrated the city center." "We emphasize that the Ukrainian army firmly controls the north of Pokrovsk. Here, the enemy has lost momentum, and 'flag-planting influencers' can no longer infiltrate the Ukrainian army's defense zone. At the same time, the Ukrainian army's active offensive operations continue to restore our control over every meter of the city."
The Ukrainian military reported that they are conducting raids on the south side of the railway line, killing dozens of Russian soldiers in the past 24 hours. The statement said: "Our troops are eliminating the enemy step by step, burning the 'rags' hung by enemy influencers and replacing them with the Ukrainian flag."
In addition, according to the Ukrainian military report, the Ukrainian army continues to clear surrounded Russian troops in Kupiansk city. In the past 24 hours, dozens more Russian soldiers were killed. Currently, only 40 Russian military communication signal points are monitored, speculating that there are only just over 100 remnant Russian troops left. On the same day, the Ukrainian army used 3 tons of high explosives to completely destroy an abandoned natural gas pipeline used by the Russian army for infiltration.
6. [General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Releases Latest Russian Combat Losses]
In the past day, Russian casualties were 710, and other combat losses are shown in the figure below (yellow numbers are the count for the past 24 hours, white numbers are the cumulative total).
Let us continue to pray earnestly: May God grant peace and stop the war; let the wicked be retributed and the good be protected.
III. Replies to Reader Inquiries and Rumor Busting
1. Heard that the German parliament rejected the plan to provide "compensation loans" to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets?
Answer: Absolutely not true.
2. Approximately when will a decision be made on the plan to provide €130 billion or €210 billion in "compensation loans" to Ukraine using frozen Russian assets? Heard that Ukraine's budget can at most last until the end of April next year; can EU aid connect in time?
Answer: On December 18, the European Council will make a decision on the use of frozen Russian assets in Brussels. I think Belgium will be persuaded. In case Belgium does not agree, the EU has Plan B. Europe, Canada, and Japan will definitely give Ukraine strong support; there is really no need to worry about Ukraine running out of ammunition and food.
3. Will Ukraine hold wartime elections?
Answer: I'll say it again, this matter is hard to judge at present, we can only take it one step at a time. Zelenskyy definitely does not wish to hold a general election, but if US and European partners can provide security guarantees and financial support, Zelenskyy cannot refuse either. This depends on whether Trump is just bluffing, not wanting to spend a penny but fishing for fame, or is willing to pay a small price to promote a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. If Trump wants to get something for nothing, he will absolutely not get his wish.
4. After Turkish President Erdogan met with Putin on the 12th, he claimed that peace was near and he would discuss advancing the Russia-Ukraine peace plan with Trump. Do you think Putin has made major concessions?
Answer: My accounts for writing about the Russia-Ukraine war have been banned several times, but I clearly remember that shortly after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, between about March and May 2022, multiple rounds of Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations were held in Turkey. Erdogan announced more than once that both Russia and Ukraine were close to reaching an agreement; once Erdogan even announced that both sides had basically agreed on the text of the agreement and a ceasefire could be achieved within two or three days at the fastest. Therefore, we need not take the words of these politicians seriously. I still believe that neither Trump nor Erdogan, nor anyone else, has the ability to force both Russia and Ukraine to make substantive concessions to meet the other side's ceasefire demands. Erdogan's performance in the Hamas-Israel war and the Russia-Ukraine war shows typical NPD personality traits, only his symptoms are much milder than Trump's.