I. Interpretation of Major International News
1. [IDF Kills Senior Hamas Commander]
On December 13, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck a car in Gaza City, carrying senior Hamas commander Raed Saed. He was one of the masterminds behind the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and was currently the "second in command" of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Video released by the IDF showed what appeared to be a small missile fired from a drone accurately hitting the vehicle the deceased was traveling in, with vehicles in front and behind and surrounding pedestrians almost unaffected. The Gaza Health Ministry stated on Saturday that the attack killed four people. Hamas confirmed on the afternoon of December 14 that Raed Saed, a senior official responsible for armaments, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on western Gaza City on the 13th.
The killing of Saed and his three associates is the most high-profile decapitation operation carried out by the IDF since the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement came into effect this October. This shows that the IDF has not actually observed the ceasefire agreement between the two sides. It can be expected that as long as core Hamas figures related to the October 7 massacre appear, the IDF and intelligence agencies will ruthlessly eliminate them, unbound by any ceasefire agreement.
Israeli defense officials stated that Saed was the head of Hamas's weapons manufacturing department. Hamas sources confirmed that Saed was the number two figure in Hamas in the Gaza Strip, second only to another surviving Hamas leader, Haddad. At the time of the October 7, 2023 massacre, neither Saed nor Haddad were top-level Hamas figures; they only filled in as the new leadership after the IDF eliminated the Hamas high command, and simultaneously entered the decapitation list of the IDF and intelligence agencies.
2. [Shooting at Bondi Beach, Australia]
around 6:40 PM on the evening of December 14, 2025, a shooting occurred at the famous Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia. Two men dressed in black opened fire on the crowd with what appeared to be shotguns, and nearby residents reported hearing up to 50 gunshots. Video from the scene showed two masked men shooting at the crowd, lasting for about 10 minutes. Witnesses described the scene as "absolutely a living hell."
Shortly after the incident, Australian police stated that there was still a bomb threat following the shooting at Bondi Beach in Sydney on the 14th, and an improvised explosive device was found in the car suspected to be used by the perpetrators. Police appealed to the public to avoid approaching Bondi Beach. Australian Prime Minister Albanese issued a statement saying: "The scenes at Bondi are shocking and distressing. Police and emergency responders are working hard on the scene to save lives. My thoughts are with all those affected."
Australian police reported on December 15 that the shooting at Bondi Beach in Sydney on the 14th had caused 16 deaths, including one suspect, and 40 injuries. The two suspects were a father and son pair; one died and the other was seriously injured. Two injured police officers are in critical condition and have not yet passed the danger period after surgery.
A video circulating online showed that when one gunman was shooting at the crowd, a brave man used a car as cover to pounce on the gunman from behind and seize the gun in his hands, then shot at the gunman with it, but unfortunately failed to fire; as the gunman retreated, he was attacked by another citizen throwing a wine bottle; later, the gunman retreated under a flyover where another accomplice was hiding and raised his gun again to shoot at the crowd.
After the video leaked, netizens praised the brave citizen who seized the gun for his fearlessness. New South Wales Premier Minns said, "This is the most incredible scene I have ever seen, and many people survived thanks to him." According to the latest police report, the hero who seized the gun was 43-year-old fruit vendor Ahmed Ahmed, who appears to be a Muslim immigrant judging by his name and appearance.
At the time of the incident, about 2,000 members of the Jewish community were celebrating Hanukkah on the beach. Reports suggested this might have been the target of the attack, but it has not been officially confirmed. The Israeli government stated that it had issued multiple terrorist attack warnings to the Australian government beforehand, but the Australian side turned a blind eye. Israeli Foreign Minister Saar angrily stated: This is the consequence of Australia's anti-Semitic atrocities over the past two years.
On social media, Israeli President Herzog expressed condolences to the victims. "We feel the same pain. We are heartbroken. At this moment, the entire State of Israel prays for them, wishing the injured a speedy recovery... and may the deceased rest in peace." He also stated, "From Jerusalem, we send our most sincere condolences to Australia and repeatedly call on the Australian government to take action against the huge wave of anti-Semitism currently plaguing Australian society."
Media reported that the gunman seriously injured in the shooting has been identified as 24-year-old Naveed Akram. According to documents, he is from Bonnyrigg in southwestern Sydney, Australia. Judging by the name, he may be an immigrant from Pakistan or Afghanistan.
Australian officials have not yet released the identity of the murderer or the motive for the crime. NSW Police Commissioner Mal Lanyon stated at a press conference: "This was an organized, targeted act of violence, clearly aimed at the Hanukkah celebration of the Jewish community at Bondi Beach." Police said they would investigate the case as a terrorist attack.
Because there were many Jews among the dead, I particularly understand the anger of the Israeli government, but I feel that Israeli officials' criticism of the Australian government is too harsh—unless precise and specific intelligence on terrorist attacks is obtained, it is difficult to prevent all terrorist attacks.
II. Latest Dynamics and Comments on the Russia-Ukraine War
1. [Incoming Czech Prime Minister Says "No Money for Ukraine"]
Incoming Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš clearly stated in a video speech on December 13 that the Czech Republic does not intend to participate in the EU's future funding for Ukraine, nor will it participate in loan guarantees provided by the EU to Ukraine.
The "Action of Dissatisfied Citizens" party led by Babiš won the Czech Chamber of Deputies election held in October this year. On December 15, he will formally take over government affairs in Prague and will represent the Czech Republic at the EU summit. EU leaders plan to decide on a solution for aid to Ukraine at the Council on December 18 to meet Ukraine's financial needs over the next two years.
As of December 14, the artillery coalition led by the Czech Republic completed the plan to provide 1.8 million large-caliber artillery shells to Ukraine this year ahead of schedule. This is not free aid from the Czech Republic to Ukraine, but purchased with funds from other Ukrainian partner countries.
In the past four years or so, whether in terms of the amount of free aid to Ukraine or the proportion of total aid to Ukraine to GDP, the Czech Republic can only be considered a second-tier country. After the new Czech government takes office, it may, like the United States, completely stop free aid to Ukraine, but it will certainly continue to utilize the Czech Republic's relatively large military industrial capacity to continue selling artillery shells to Ukraine; of course, Ukraine will also give procurement orders to closer allies as much as possible.
I mentioned in my article yesterday: Like Germany, the Czech Republic has a cabinet system of government, and the president is only a figurehead, so the pro-Ukraine Czech president cannot influence the government's foreign policy. Some readers questioned this, saying that the Czech Republic is a semi-presidential country like Poland, so the pro-Ukraine president has foreign policy decision-making power. I can confirm that my statement in yesterday's article on this issue is correct. Like Germany, the Czech Republic is a typical parliamentary country, not a semi-presidential country like Poland.
2. [Zelensky Says Ukraine Ready to Give Up NATO Membership as Compromise to End Conflict, Provided Reliable Security Guarantees Obtained]
On the eve of meeting the U.S. envoy in Berlin, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated in a response to reporters' questions via WhatsApp on December 14 that Ukraine has abandoned its goal of joining NATO in exchange for Western security guarantees as a compromise plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This move marks a major shift in Ukraine's position.
Zelensky stated that replacing NATO membership with security guarantees provided by the United States, Europe, and other partners is a compromise made by the Ukrainian side. "From the beginning, Ukraine's desire was to join NATO, which is a real security guarantee, but some partners in the United States and Europe did not support it." "Therefore, now the bilateral security guarantees reached between Ukraine and the United States, the quasi-'Article 5' guarantees provided to us by the United States, and the security guarantees from European partners and other countries such as Canada and Japan." Zelensky stated: "This in itself is a compromise we have made." He also emphasized that these security guarantees should contain legal obligations.
Zelensky also clearly stated in the interview that currently Ukraine and Russia have not established a direct dialogue channel, and the United States has assumed a special "megaphone role," to a certain extent "representing" Russia to convey relevant signals, requirements, negotiation steps, and core wishes to the Ukrainian side.
Zelensky emphasized: "What Ukraine discusses with the US side is not only bilateral relations and security guarantees, but also includes our response to Russia's position." He reiterated that the key to resolving the conflict lies in the real pressure exerted by the United States and its partners, and the object of this pressure should be the Russian side, pushing Russia to make substantial compromises.
I believe that Ukraine giving up NATO, which it temporarily cannot join, if it can immediately win stronger security guarantees, is just losing face but winning the substance, and cannot be called any substantial concession to Russia. Just as Zelensky previously stated, Ukraine can withdraw from the Donbas region, provided that the Russian army also completely withdraws from Donbas, and UN peacekeeping forces or multinational security forces are stationed there, and the issue of territory ownership can be decided by a referendum after 30 years—decided by all Ukrainians rather than just the people of the Donbas region. This is Zelensky retreating to advance, a negotiation technique to deal with Trump's pressure, rather than making any substantial concessions on matters of principle. In the past 24 hours, almost all the media I have seen have given completely different interpretations of this, which I respect—as to which is closer to the truth, let time verify.
Latest news shows that the delegation led by Ukrainian President Zelensky ended a meeting lasting more than 5 hours with the delegation led by US Presidential Envoy Wittkoff and Presidential Senior Advisor Kushner on December 14. The US delegation included Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Cavoli, and National Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov and Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Hnatov participated in the talks. The US side reported that the core topics of both sides remained territory, security guarantees, and the issue of EU frozen Russian assets. Neither side disclosed details of the talks, but Wittkoff, as always, claimed that the negotiations made "significant progress."
Ukrainian Presidential Spokesperson Dmytro Lytvyn told the media: "The meeting lasted more than five hours and ended today." According to Lytvyn, negotiations will continue tomorrow. He did not specify whether the US and Ukraine would continue talks, or whether Ukrainian and European leaders would meet with the US side together today (Monday). Judging from the fact that no joint communiqué was issued after the US-Ukraine talks, the two sides did not make any progress on matters of principle. Because the US side cannot persuade Russia to make any concessions and now completely stands on Russia's position to pressure Ukraine, the US-Ukraine talks are equivalent to Russia-Ukraine talks, and it is difficult for both sides to reach an agreement. From the videos and pictures released, the atmosphere at the scene was dull and tense.
At the time of writing this article, I saw videos and pictures of Ukrainian and European leaders starting talks with US representatives, and there is currently no information on the progress of the negotiations.
3. [Ukraine Leverages Situation to Seek Rapid EU Accession via Special Procedure]
The Financial Times of the UK, which has always been known for its rigor, reported on December 12 local time that in the current negotiations aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war mediated by the United States, a plan is being put on the table—Ukraine is expected to be "designated to join the EU" in 2027, a move that will rewrite the EU's "accession procedure."
Sources revealed that US and Ukrainian officials are discussing, and with the support of the EU, the latest version of the "Ukraine Peace Plan" draft explicitly states that Ukraine should join the EU before January 1, 2027.
Ukraine has not yet completed any of the EU's 36 cumbersome accession stages, and the rapid timetable that has now appeared will overturn the EU's so-called "merit-based" new member selection principle and force Brussels to reconsider the entire accession process.
The Financial Times stated that the Ukrainian media "Mirror Weekly" first disclosed on December 11 the news that the process of Ukraine's accession to the EU was included in the "Peace Plan" draft, and "Mirror Weekly" reported back on December 14 that the latest report by the Financial Times further confirmed their previous news.
Support from the United States means that US President Trump can order Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, who has so far been obstructing Ukraine's accession process, to give up his veto power, thereby allowing Ukraine and the EU to accelerate the accession process.
On December 11 local time, Ukrainian President Zelensky told reporters in Kyiv that he and his negotiating team "have adjusted their positions on certain issues based on the reality that Ukraine will become a member of the EU in the future."
Zelensky stated, "Whether Ukraine can join the EU in the future depends largely on Europeans. In fact, it also depends on Americans." "Because if we reach an agreement that clarifies when Ukraine joins the EU, then the United States as a party to the agreement will do its best to ensure that our path to joining the EU will not be obstructed by other European countries that the United States can influence."
The wisdom of Zelensky's team is truly remarkable. Many people like to spread falsehoods, claiming that "weak countries have no diplomacy." This is actually a hegemonic mentality, or great power chauvinism. Compared with the United States and Russia, Ukraine seems weak, but it has made the United States and Russia join hands and still be helpless. Instead, it uses its opponents to seek tangible benefits for itself.
I do not think Ukraine can join the EU before January 1, 2027, just as I do not think Russia and Ukraine can reach a package ceasefire and peace agreement under Trump's strong pressure. Everything Ukraine and Europe are doing is to deal with Trump without falling out with him.
4. [Macron Reaffirms Europe Stands with Ukraine, Ukraine Has Not Been Crushed]
As the US envoy in Berlin is about to have a showdown with Ukraine and Europe on the peace plan, French President Macron posted on his official account on December 14, saying that he spoke with Ukrainian President Zelensky on the phone that day and thanked all parties involved in achieving a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.
He wrote: "I just spoke with President Zelensky. Americans, Europeans, and Ukrainians only ask for peace. As Russia continues its war of aggression, Ukraine stands firm and has not been crushed."
He stated that France will continue to stand with Ukraine to jointly build a solid and lasting peace capable of guaranteeing the long-term security and sovereignty of Ukraine and Europe. Macron added: "I thank all the negotiators who are working towards this goal—Ukraine, Europe, and the United States."
On December 15, Berlin, Germany, will host heads of state and government from multiple countries, as well as EU and NATO leaders, to discuss the grand plan for peace in Ukraine. US envoy Wittkoff will first meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and then with European leaders.
5. [Meloni Calls Trump's New Strategy a "Wake-up Call for Europe"]
Italian Prime Minister Meloni, who was recently strongly criticized by the Italian opposition parties and Italian public opinion for advocating accommodation of Trump's demands and suspending military aid to Ukraine so as not to disrupt the peace plan promoted by Trump, believing that Italy has been isolated from the European family by European partners.
Italian Prime Minister Meloni told the media on December 14 that US President Trump's new national security strategy is a "wake-up call" for Europe. In her view, President Trump's strategy clearly points to Washington's intention to "disengage from the old continent of Europe."
Meloni also confirmed that despite differences within Europe, including on the issue of aid to Ukraine, she stated that the Italian ruling coalition remains united. Meloni said: "We hope Italy is loyal to its partners, but not dominated by anyone. This is why we have stood with Ukraine from the beginning. This is also why we will continue to do so—for justice, but above all to defend our national interests and security."
Meloni's latest statement is clearly that this leader, who always plays both sides and has a flexible posture, is preparing to distance herself slightly from Trump and move closer to the vast majority of European partners. At a critical juncture when European security and development are facing major choices, I sincerely hope that Italy will not stand with those partner countries ruled by the European far-right, such as Hungary, Slovakia, and the new Czech government, and become an accomplice to the US plot to divide Europe and break up the EU.
The fact that Meloni's ruling coalition has been able to govern stably for such a long time with a slim advantage shows that she has considerable political wisdom and will not follow Trump too far—after all, Italy's economic development relies heavily on the help of the EU.
6. [Due to War Trauma, Violent Crimes by Russian Soldiers Returning from Frontline Surge, Killing and Injuring Hundreds]
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine released a report on December 14, detailing the alarming crime data of Russian soldiers returning from the front line.
The report stated that at least 551 Russian soldiers died while returning to civilian life on leave, due to injury, or after their contracts ended. Of these, 274 were killed, and 163 died from injuries caused by mutual beatings or traffic accidents. Previously, another 142 criminals were convicted, including for similar crimes, and sent directly from labor camps to the battlefield.
At the same time, affected by war trauma, crimes committed by these soldiers have risen sharply. Russian military and civil courts have sentenced about 8,000 active and retired soldiers who participated in the war in Ukraine, of whom more than 900 "veterans" were convicted of violent crimes, including murder and intentional injury. In addition, the courts also recorded lawsuits involving theft, car theft, and other property damage (3,000 people), drug-related crimes (1,500 people), and fraud involving nearly 400 defendants.
7. [Ukraine Successfully Strikes Russian Refinery, Large Oil Depot, and Multiple High-Value Targets in Russian Depth]
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported on December 14 that on the night of December 13 to the early morning of the 14th, it successfully attacked a Russian refinery in the Krasnodar Krai, a large oil depot in the Volgograd Oblast, and a series of important Russian military facilities in the occupied territories.
Ukrainian forces attacked the facilities of the Afipsky refinery in the Krasnodar Krai, and explosions and fires were recorded at the scene; at the same time, the Uryupinsk oil depot in the Volgograd Oblast was also attacked.
The strikes also targeted multiple facilities and targets in Russian-occupied areas, including two electronic warfare stations, two command posts, and a radar station in Donetsk Oblast, as well as a Tor-M2 surface-to-air missile system and a drone launch site in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
In addition, in Crimea, Ukrainian troops attacked two fuel and lubricant bases, as well as a Kasta-2E2 radar station and a 96L6E radar station used for S-300 and S-400 air defense systems.
According to descriptions by witnesses on Russian social media, Ukraine also attacked a refinery in the Russian city of Yaroslavl and a state-owned power plant in the Smolensk Oblast on the same day.
As Ukrainian self-developed missiles are put into use, high-value targets deep within Russia and Russian-occupied areas are being hit more and more, and the strike effects are getting better and better.
8. [Latest Russian Combat Losses Published by Ukrainian General Staff]
In the past day, Russian casualties were 980, and other combat losses are shown in the figure below (yellow numbers are the counts for the past 24 hours, white numbers are the cumulative totals).
Let us continue to pray earnestly: May God grant peace and cease war; may the wicked receive retribution, and the good be protected.
III. Replies to Reader Inquiries and Rumor Busting
1. Teacher Cheng, I have always been very confused. What is the root cause of the rise of Western far-right forces? Is it because the "white left" has gone too far in the past few decades, triggering a backlash in public opinion?
Answer: First of all, I must state that I extremely dislike the term "white left" (baizuo). This in itself is a term with racial discrimination connotations. Secondly, to answer your question, we must understand a common sense of political science (sociology): the Western far-right is actually what we call the far-left, preaching populism and narrow nationalism; it's just that whether it is far-left or far-right, our side is far more extreme than Western society. Please Baidu or ask major domestic artificial intelligence models for the main political propositions of populism and nationalism, and they can give accurate answers.
I personally feel that the rise of the Western far-right, the overly rapid process of globalization, and the excessive tolerance of the Western left on immigration issues are important reasons, and the power of the internet has played a major role—because those attracted by those deceptive and seductive slogans are mostly the bottom of society and groups with lower education levels. For example, anti-immigration, anti-globalization, opposition to foreign aid, etc.
Traditionally, it was intellectual elites and the upper echelons of society who led a country's social opinion, and only they had the right to speak; but in the internet age, everyone has equal right to speak, and algorithms allow bottom groups to encourage each other, deeply stuck in information cocoons and unable to extricate themselves. A typical social phenomenon is that countless groups who have never been abroad and have not received a good education have become experts on international issues on online platforms, with large audiences. Trump, who speaks freely and has been convicted by the court, was actually pushed to the presidential throne again by "rednecks." This is the terrible power of the internet. To be blunt, the internet has caused a sharp decline in human cognitive ability and independent thinking ability. Why Trump thanked Musk so much after winning the 2024 election is because the rumors and extreme remarks smearing Democratic candidates precisely pushed by the X platform through algorithms did play a key role.
I have always believed that whether it is far-left or far-right, extreme propositions are not a blessing for mankind and are a great scourge to all countries. The Western far-left and far-right will eventually reach the same goal by different routes, dragging human civilization into a dangerous situation. At the same time, I also firmly believe that their error correction mechanisms can eventually play a role, and swaying left and right will not prevent human civilization from progressing continuously in twists and turns.
2. The far-right forces in the UK and Germany are rising very rapidly. Will they come to power like in the US, Hungary, Slovakia, Italy, and the Czech Republic, thereby bringing major impact to the international landscape?
Answer: In the short term, even if the approval ratings of far-right parties in the UK and Germany lead, it is difficult for them to obtain more than 40% or even higher support, and other parties uniting can still prevent them from coming to power. But in the longer term, if extreme and deceptive political speech on the internet is not restricted—many countries have become alert, but relevant legislation is very controversial because it involves speech control, and it is difficult to truly implement—therefore, far-right parties in the UK, Germany, and more countries may well come to power like in the US, Italy, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia.
However, I still have confidence in the error correction mechanisms of countries that have gone astray. I believe that reality will educate far-right supporters and prompt them to choose to return to a moderate political line, that is, to turn back after hitting a stone wall. Of course, a heavy price may be paid in the process, just like Germany and Japan experienced in World War II.
3. If Trump cannot solve the economic and livelihood issues that American people care about most, he might lose the majority seats in both houses of Congress in the midterm elections next year. Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? Also, if the Democratic Party comes back to power in the next general election, will they set things right and quickly repair the damaged US-Europe relations?
Answer: To initiate impeachment of the president in the House of Representatives generally requires sufficient reasons, and conviction requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate. If the Democrats control the House, they might restart impeachment proceedings against Trump, but there is no possibility of passing the impeachment case—unless Trump commits a major mistake in the future. Everyone must understand a common sense: a president is impeached for committing serious crimes, not because his domestic and foreign policies are not approved by the opposition party.
Even if the Democratic Party wins the next general election, the US's global influence and US-Europe relations cannot return to what they were before. The process of European defense autonomy will never slow down due to changes in US political winds. Because of the rise of far-right forces in the US and Trump's blatant betrayal of Ukraine and Europe, American society is actually helpless, which has really broken Europe's heart and also aroused high vigilance among US allies such as Japan and South Korea. As a popular internet saying goes: The hearts of the people have scattered, and the team is hard to lead.
The process of the world stage evolving from unipolar to multipolar is irreversible. Europe will become an important pole in the multipolar world, contending with other emerging forces such as the United States and India.
4. Will the US lifting sanctions on Belarus allow a large amount of dual-use goods to be transported to Russia via Belarus?
Answer: I have seen some incorrect interpretations by some media on this issue. In fact, the United States has not currently lifted comprehensive sanctions against Belarus, but only lifted the ban on potash fertilizer exports, so it will not lead to dual-use goods flowing into Russia via Belarus.
5. Is it true that Israel provided "Assassin missiles" to Ukraine?
Answer: checked it, and this rumor has been spreading widely recently. I haven't even heard of an Israeli weapon called the "Assassin" missile. On May 5, 2022, Israeli officials confirmed providing "Spike" anti-tank missile systems and "Blue Spear" anti-ship missile systems to Ukraine via Estonia. Three months ago, Ukraine and Israel respectively confirmed that Israel would retire the "Patriot" air defense system and supporting missiles and gradually transfer them to Ukraine (fulfilling the agreement signed by the three parties during the Biden administration). This is the entirety of defense cooperation between Israel and Ukraine so far.